MCB: Mauritius GDP growth to be 5%, inflation to ‘remain stickier than previously anticipated’

MCB, Mauritius’ largest bank, has released its new edition of MCB Focus, entitled: “Mauritius Inc: Raising our potential output trajectory” and authored by Gilbert Gnany, Chief Strategy Officer of the MCB Group.

For 2023, Gnany said the domestic economy is set to continue its recovery path, supported mainly by a further upturn in tourism and the continuing good performance in financial services and ICT. 

According to him, real GDP growth is expected to be around 5% this year in line with latest IMF projections, thus implying that the country would return close to its pre- pandemic level in constant rupee terms but would, however, be still below 2019 levels by some 9% in USD terms.

He added that the annual average headline inflation in Mauritius, which attained 11.1% in January last, “should remain stickier than previously anticipated in coming months”.

A gradual decline is projected in the latter part of 2023, with our updated baseline scenario pointing to headline inflation hovering around 6% by December 2023, barring major shocks, e.g., linked to commodity prices and currency dynamics.”

Latest figures by Statistics Mauritius show headline inflation for the 12-months ending February 2023 stood at 11.3%. 

Source: MCB Focus