The Vacoas weather station issued a severe weather bulletin at 17:30 on Wednesday, 28th February. It highlights that convective activity, associated with the monsoon zone, is observed between Agalega and Diego Garcia.
A weak low-pressure area can be located just east of Agalega. This system is expected to initially move southeast, then curve southwest from Thursday, 29th towards Madagascar thereafter.
The depression passing north of the Mascarene Islands is expected to intensify from Friday, 1st March when it will be located around 750 km north-northwest of Rodrigues. As the depression heads towards Madagascar, most weather models agree that it could further strengthen to become a tropical storm as it approaches the east coast of the Republic of Madagascar.
As the low-pressure system moves southwest, it will extend a trough towards the Mascarene Islands; very active clouds are likely to influence the weather in Saint Brandon, Rodrigues, and Mauritius with heavy showers and thunderstorms.
The combined effect of the low pressure and a high pressure system south of the Mascarene Islands will maintain windy conditions over the Mascarene Islands during the weekend. Weather forecasts are until Sunday, 3rd March 2024.
Mauritius: Mainly sunny on Thursday, 29th and weather will begin to deteriorate from Friday, 1st March evening. Heavy showers with thunderstorms over the weekend from Saturday, 2nd and Sunday, 3rd March. Accumulations of water and local flooding are likely in risk areas. East wind of 35 km/h with gusts of 65 km/h. The sea will become rough on Friday, 2nd and improve by Tuesday, 5th March.
Rodrigues: Scattered showers becoming heavy at times with thunderstorms from Friday, 1st March. Slight improvement is expected from Sunday, 3rd. East wind at 45 km/h with gusts of 75 km/h. The sea will become rough from Friday, 1st March.
Saint Brandon: Weather will deteriorate from Friday, 1st with strong thunderstorms at times until Sunday, 3rd March. Southeast wind of about 25 km/h, gradually strengthening to 40 km/h with gusts of 75 km/h on Saturday, 2nd. The wind will gradually shift to the northeast on Sunday, 3rd and weaken. The sea will become rough from Friday, 1st March.
In conclusion, the forecasters at the Vacoas station are cautious and note that due to the uncertainty of models and the difficulty in accurately capturing weather systems in the tropics, daily weather variations are likely. The bulletin will be updated on Thursday, 29th February.
Source: l’Express
