IMF Predicts Mauritius Economic Growth Will Slow to 2.8 % in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that economic growth in Mauritius will slow to 2.8% in 2026, citing the ongoing impact of conflict in the Middle East on the nation’s vital tourism sector.

The forecast follows a period of relative resilience for the island nation. Real GDP growth for 2025 is estimated at 3.2%, a figure bolstered by robust performances in financial services and tourism, which managed to offset a decline in the construction industry.

Inflation and Global Pressures

The data was released by Mariana Colacelli, the IMF mission chief, following an Article IV consultation visit conducted between 22 April and 4 May 2026.

Speaking at a press conference in Ebène on Monday, 4 May, Ms Colacelli noted that while inflation began to stabilise in early 2026, external factors remain a significant risk.

“Inflation… could rise again this year due to the increase in international prices for fuel and food products,” the mission statement observed.

Although 2025 saw inflationary pressure linked to domestic economic measures, current levels remain within the Bank of Mauritius’s target range of 2% to 5%.

Financial Outlook

The IMF’s assessment also highlighted shifts in the country’s balance of payments and reserves:

• Current Account: The deficit is estimated to have widened over the course of 2025.
• Foreign Reserves: Despite the widening deficit, foreign exchange reserves reached MUR 450.6 billion ($10.3 billion).

The mission’s conclusion marks the end of a two-week deep dive into the Mauritian economy, highlighting a transition from the “solid” growth seen last year toward a more cautious outlook for the months ahead.

Source: Defi Media