5 Alarming Signs Mauritius’ Demographic Crisis Could Sink Its Economy

Mauritius is grappling with a deepening demographic crisis as rapid ageing, plummeting birth rates, and negative net migration threaten to stifle economic growth and strain public finances, according to new data from Statistics Mauritius, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), and the World Bank.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has warned that these trends could push public debt to 80% of GDP by 2026 unless urgent reforms are implemented. The 2022 census reveals Mauritius’ population now stands at 1.235 million, with the average age rising to 38. The proportion of under-15s has dropped sharply from 20.7% in 2011 to 15.4% in 2022, while over-60s have surged from 12.7% to 18.7% in the same period.

Falling Fertility and Migration Woes

The fertility rate has collapsed to just 1.32 children per woman—far below the replacement level of 2.1—while negative net migration has further exacerbated population stagnation.

Moody’s, in its 5 August 2025 assessment, flagged these factors as a “triple drag” on growth, with the Basic Retirement Pension (BRP) system under particular strain. The BRP’s cost has doubled since 2019, prompting the government to gradually raise the eligibility age from 60 to 65—a move expected to save 1% of GDP by 2026.

Budget Reforms and Social Resistance

The 2025-26 Budget also proposes cutting tax exemptions and introducing new levies to stabilise debt. However, Moody’s cautioned that such reforms risk triggering public backlash.

Social Security Minister Ashok Subron acknowledged the crisis, stating: “Mauritius now faces a paradox—longer lifespans and lower birth rates, once signs of progress, are becoming economic burdens.” He emphasised the need for collective responsibility, announcing plans for nationwide consultations on pension reforms and stronger protections for the elderly.

Underlying Causes and Societal Shifts

Experts cite soaring housing and education costs, longer working lives—especially for women—and a lack of family support infrastructure like childcare as key reasons for declining births. These trends have pushed Mauritius into a demographic trap, with fertility rates unlikely to recover without policy intervention.

Meanwhile, an older population means rising healthcare demands, particularly for chronic illnesses and elderly care. The government is reviewing laws on elder rights and considering an Ombudsperson for seniors, alongside reforms to disability benefits.

Pathways Forward

Economists suggest multiple strategies to counter the crisis:

• Encouraging senior employment to maintain workforce levels
• Pro-family policies, including affordable childcare and parental leave
• Targeted economic migration to offset labour shortages

Yet achieving these measures requires political consensus and public buy-in—a challenge in itself.

A Looming Legacy

With Mauritius’ youth share at a historic low and its elderly population growing fast, the demographic clock is ticking. Without decisive action, the nation risks passing an unsustainable fiscal and social burden to future generations.

As Minister Subron noted, “This isn’t just a government issue—it’s a societal responsibility.” The coming years will test whether Mauritius can turn its demographic challenge into an opportunity for sustainable reform.

Key Takeaways

• Population ageing rapidly: Over-60s now 18.7% of population, up from 12.7% in 2011
• Birth rate crisis: Fertility at 1.32 children per woman, well below replacement level
• Debt fears: Public debt could hit 80% of GDP by 2026 without reforms
• Pension strain: BRP costs doubled since 2019; retirement age rising to 65
• Healthcare pressures: Elderly care demands set to surge public spending
• Reform plans: Pension overhauls, elder protections, and migration policies in discussion

Source: l’Express