Opinion
4 Expert Analysts Warn Government Over Rising Social Unrest & Political Instability
Mauritius stands at a critical crossroads as it enters 2026, facing unprecedented social and political malaise driven by a soaring cost of living, bureaucratic paralysis, and a widening generational divide.
More than a year after an election defined by promises of “rupture,” the Alliance du Changement government finds itself in a defensive crouch. Public sentiment is souring over controversial reforms—most notably to the Basic Retirement Pension (BRP)—which observers have described as a “politico-social scam.”
Economic Priorities Sacrificed
Political observer and former minister Jean Claude de l’Estrac warned that the country has been distracted by “political squabbles” at the expense of economic development.
While Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam has hailed a slight increase in growth, critics argue it is “totally insufficient” for the nation’s ambitions.
“If I were Prime Minister, I would have declared 2026 the ‘Year of the Economy’,” Mr de l’Estrac stated.
He called for an aggressive search for foreign direct investment and a return to the 1980s-90s strategy of ministers actively pitching the country globally, rather than relying on internal “incantations” regarding the blue economy.
A “Year of Zero Sum”
Geopolitical expert Dr Shafick Osman suggested 2026 may be a “lost year.” Despite having three and a half years before the 2029 elections, the government faces a structural handicap after losing popular trust in its first year.
The administration is currently facing a high-stakes choice:
- Fulfil late promises: Attempt to regain legitimacy by delivering on election vows.
- Persist in austerity: Maintain a narrative of “empty coffers” (lakess vid) to satisfy international agencies like Moody’s and the IMF.
“One cannot govern for five years by accusing the previous regime,” Dr Osman warned, noting that the opposition remains too fragmented to provide a cohesive alternative.
Institutional Decay and Nepotism
Historian Jocelyn Chan Low highlighted a “glaring gap” between public expectations and the reality of governance.
He pointed to a climate of suspicion fuelled by scandals involving Air Mauritius and the Bank of Mauritius.
The perception of a “gerontocracy” is driving a brain drain, as young professionals feel meritocracy has been replaced by “cronyism,” involving even “very old friends” of the establishment.
“The youth feel their talents are not recognised and that political backing is required to succeed,” Chan Low observed.
Five National Urgencies
Former MP Nita Deerpalsing described a population that is “suffocating” under the weight of low wages, with 90% of employees earning less than Rs 50,000 per month. She outlined five critical areas for immediate action:
| Priority | Focus Area |
| 1 | Security and a more robust fight against drug trafficking. |
| 2 | Protecting household purchasing power to prevent a “social bomb.” |
| 3 | Eradicating corruption and clientelism to restore trust. |
| 4 | Ensuring access to healthy, affordable food. |
| 5 | Re-industrialisation and boosting exports via the AfCFTA. |
Fragile Alliances
The stability of the ruling PTr-MMM-ReA-ND coalition is also under scrutiny. Ms Deerpalsing claimed that the question of a split is “not a matter of ‘if,’ but ‘when,'” citing private admissions from sitting MPs.
As the year unfolds, the rise of trade unions as a “social opposition” and the potential leadership transition within the MMM—where Joanna Bérenger is seen as a modernising figure—could redefine the political landscape.
For now, Mauritius remains in a state of “relief and disappointment,” waiting to see if its leaders can move beyond rhetoric to concrete action.
Source: Defi Media
