Business
SBM Forecasts 3.2% GDP Growth for 2025 Amid Global Headwinds
The SBM Group – Mauritius predicts real GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, according to the 18th edition of its economic analysis bulletin, SBM Insights, published on October 30.
The forecast, which anticipates a resilient domestic economy with solid fundamentals, is slightly lower than the bank’s projections for 2024 but remains marginally above those of Statistics Mauritius.
The report also forecasts inflation of approximately 3.8% by the end of December 2025.
Context and Challenges
These estimations reflect an updated analysis of the local macroeconomic environment, taking into account government-led reforms and a complex global backdrop marked by rising protectionism and increased trade fragmentation.
Nuvin Balloo, Group Chief Strategy Officer at SBM Holdings Ltd., noted: “While real GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.2% this year according to our latest forecasts, the government is implementing a bold, but necessary, fiscal consolidation programme and has identified several structural reforms aimed at achieving its medium-term economic growth objective of 4% to 5%.”
However, the report highlights that the Mauritian economy currently faces multiple structural and demographic challenges that weigh on the country’s productivity and competitiveness.
Major Obstacles Identified
SBM Insights pinpoints several major challenges to the economic outlook:
- A “morose and complex” international economic and trade environment.
- Local constraints, including prolonged drought and the effects of climate change, which impact production, trade, and consumer prices.
- Short-term, albeit manageable, challenges related to the implementation of the fiscal consolidation programme, with some repercussions on overall demand.
Policy Recommendations
The bank stressed that the economic outlook rests on targeted public and private policies, reflecting the country’s capacity to adapt to a demanding and volatile context.
The report puts emphasis on the discerning implementation of the current fiscal consolidation programme.
“As this edition of SBM Insights recalls, the key to success lies in adopting an integrated and sustainable socio-economic vision, while restoring fiscal space to support stable and sustainable economic growth,” the Group Chief Strategy Officer added. He asserted the need for both the public and private sectors to remain vigilant and provide effective responses to current and future challenges, driven by coherent planning, predictable strategies, and clear roadmaps.
This, he concluded, requires strengthening decision-making and execution capacity to ensure reforms are fully and timely realised.
Source: Le Mauricien
