IMF Forecasts Mauritian Growth Will Stay at 3% in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mauritius’s economy to slow down in 2025. In a statement released on June 18, 2025, after its annual Article IV consultation, the IMF projected that economic growth will drop to 3%.

This slowdown is mainly due to weaker external demand, a decline in tourism, and ongoing effects of drought.

In the medium term, IMF forecasts growth will stabilize around 3.4%, but it will face headwinds from demographic challenges and labor shortages.

Inflation is expected to reach 3.6% this year, according to the IMF’s projections.

Public finances show the government’s debt could reach 88% of GDP by the end of June 2025, but is expected to gradually decline afterward.

The IMF also predicted the primary budget deficit (excluding subsidies) will worsen to 6.5% of GDP in 2024/2025, up from 3.4 points compared to 2023/2024. This increase is driven by higher wages, social assistance, and subsidies.

The IMF warns that global uncertainties, potential trade tensions, higher-than-expected food and energy prices, and climate shocks pose risks to these outlooks.

A IMF mission visited Mauritius in April to review recent economic developments and discuss government policies with local authorities.

Excerpt from the IMF report: “Growth prospects remain favorable, though risks are skewed to the downside.

Mauritius needs to recalibrate its macroeconomic policies to rebuild fiscal space. Strengthening monetary policy frameworks and continuing to monitor macro-financial risks are essential to maintaining financial stability.

Key reforms should focus on boosting external competitiveness, supporting private sector-led growth, and increasing resilience to climate change to reduce external imbalances.”

Source: Defi Media