Alarming Forecast: Mauritius to Suffer a Shocking 36.8% Drop in Workforce by 2063

AXYS, a prominent portfolio management firm in Mauritius, has issued a compelling report titled The Hands That Build Mauritius: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Future of Labour, which paints a troubling picture of the island’s labour market. The analysis forecasts a substantial decline in the workforce, with a predicted drop of 11.7% by 2038 and an even more striking 36.8% by 2063. Such declines pose significant threats to the economy and public finances.

Sanjay Goolab, Managing Director of AXYS, emphasised the critical nature of the situation:

“This report aims to explore the changes within Mauritius’ labour market and identify actionable steps to bolster the country’s competitiveness.

By illuminating current challenges and offering tangible solutions, we hope to empower policymakers and businesses with vital insights to prepare for the future of work.”

The report identified four key challenges that endanger the stability of the labour market.

Firstly, a diminishing workforce undermines economic stability.

As the working-age population declines, pressure on the economy and public services intensifies.

This trend is exacerbated by an increasing dependency ratio, further burdening those who remain employed.

Adding to this predicament is the rise in skilled emigration. More than 182,000 Mauritians now live overseas, with a significant number being of working age.

This trend, driven largely by salary discrepancies and limited job opportunities at home, significantly reduces the availability of crucial skills needed for economic advancement.

The report also pointed to shortcomings within the educational system. Only 28% to 35% of primary school students progress to complete their secondary education, limiting access to vocational qualifications and creating a disconnect between available skills and market needs.

For instance, of the 17,553 students who began Standard 1 in 2010, just 6,141 secured their Higher School Certificate (HSC) by 2023, underscoring the issue of dropout rates and their effects on employability.

Moreover, the current wage structure fails to retain graduates or attract skilled positions.

Despite free access to higher education, the salaries offered are not competitive enough to encourage young people to remain in Mauritius or return after studying abroad.

This trend stifles innovation and undermines the country’s overall competitiveness.

In response to these pressing challenges, AXYS recommended several strategic measures.

Updating the primary sector through automation and embracing new technologies could significantly boost productivity while decreasing dependency on unskilled labour.

Additionally, adjusting salaries to meet international standards and creating opportunities for professional development would help stem the flow of graduates leaving the country and enhance the local job market’s attractiveness.

The importance of educational reform is also highlighted, focusing on reducing dropout rates and strengthening technical and vocational training.

Future Workforce

A more effective alignment between education and economic demand is essential for preparing the future workforce for the inevitable changes in the job market.

“Mauritius must adjust its labour market to reflect current economic and technological realities.

Investing in education, improving employment prospects, and modernising key sectors are critical steps to ensure a qualified workforce and enhance national competitiveness,” stressed Navnit Seeburrun, Investment Analyst at AXYS.

The time for decisive action is upon us. The future of Mauritius is at stake, and without prompt and effective measures, the nation risks losing its most valuable resource—its people.

Source: Le Mauricien