Meteorological Phenomenon: System 94 S Poses Potential Cyclonic Threat

Meteorological officials are keeping a close watch on System 94 S, a developing weather system that may threaten the region. According to Cyclone Océan Indien, both Systems 92 S and 94 S are expected to move closer to the area. Following the recent cyclone Belal in mid-January, which caused significant flooding, authorities are taking the potential emergence of System 94 S very seriously.

Currently, this system is situated far to the northeast of Mauritius.

However, various numerical models indicate that it could approach the island by the end of the week.

The trajectory of System 94 S could evoke memories of cyclone Belal, which struck around the same time last year, causing devastating flooding, particularly in Port-Louis.

That cyclone was responsible for the tragic deaths of two motorcyclists—one in Tamarin and the other on the highway near Les Guibies, Pailles.

System 94 S has been developing off the northwest coast of Australia for several days and has the potential to strengthen and be named Dikeledi.

If it intensifies, it may traverse the Indian Ocean from east to west, reminiscent of Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which formed in a similar region in February 2023.

Freddy traveled over 9,000 kilometers in just 17 days, wreaking havoc along the way, especially in Madagascar and Mozambique.

While Mauritius escaped a direct hit from Freddy, which passed approximately 200 kilometers north of the island, the nation still experienced wind gusts between 105 and 154 kilometers per hour, leading to significant rainfall and flooding in multiple areas, damaging infrastructure and homes.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) are also tracking another system, 92 S, located east of Agaléga.

According to acting Deputy Director Renganaden Virasamy, “We expect to have more information on the development of these systems by the end of next week.”

He noted that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is particularly active at this time.

However, he mentioned that for a system to develop, several factors must align, including sea surface temperatures.

Virasamy cautioned that the risk of experiencing a significant cyclone during this season remains.

“Although systems have formed, they have moved far from us,” he explained, referencing the intense cyclone Chido, which passed over Agaléga before impacting Mayotte.

He acknowledged that other similar systems could form in the southwest Indian Ocean, but assessing their likelihood of approaching Mauritius is challenging.

“We must simply prepare ourselves,” he emphasized.

In addition to the MMS, regional weather stations and amateur meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation.

At present, the potential intensification of System 94 S is classified as “moderate,” since it is not yet operating in a favorable environment.

Due to uncertainties related to long-term forecasting, it is difficult to predict whether this system will indeed approach Mauritius, despite indications from numerical models.

In a bid to innovate, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have collaborated with the national broadcasting station and an organization advocating for the deaf and hard of hearing to create a one-minute informative video.

This video is aiming to better prepare the public for a possible cyclone event.

It summarized critical information available on the MMS website and outlined essential guidelines to follow in advance of a cyclone, including:

• Inspecting homes to ensure they are structurally sound and capable of withstanding strong winds.
• Pruning branches that could damage buildings, telephone lines, and power lines.
• Securing boats.
• Identifying the nearest cyclone shelters.
• Preparing emergency supplies and stocking up on non-perishable food items.

In terms of weather forecasts, after a relatively clear day, rain showers are expected Sunday evening, January 12, particularly in elevated areas, according to the MMS.

A similar situation is anticipated for Monday, January 6, as well as on Thursday, January 9, and Friday, January 10, due to the approach of an instability line.

Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs above average, ranging from 26 to 29 degrees Celsius in the central plateau and from 31 to 34 degrees Celsius along the coast.

Source: Defi Media