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Summer Forecast for Mauritius & Rodrigues (2024-25)
The latest projections from Mauritius Meteorological Services regarding the summer season of 2024-25, which runs from November to April, present an alarming picture. Temperatures are expected to rise significantly above seasonal averages, while a marked increase in cyclone activity and a higher risk of extreme weather conditions are anticipated in the southwestern Indian Ocean.
With the impending combination of intense heatwaves, severe cyclones, and extreme phenomena, authorities, farmers, and residents must exercise heightened vigilance to ensure safety and resilience.
Climate models indicating a substantial rise in temperatures during the summer, particularly from January to March 2025.
Forecasts suggested that temperature readings could surpass seasonal averages by two to three degrees, reaching peaks of 35°C along the west coast of Mauritius and around 33°C on Rodrigues’ shoreline.
These heatwaves, coupled with high humidity levels and light breezes, will create a stifling and oppressive atmosphere, often described as “torrid.”
Such conditions are likely to lead to serious challenges for vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses.
Health authorities are already urging the public to remain vigilant by staying hydrated, avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and paying special attention to urban residents, who are particularly susceptible to the impacts of elevated temperatures due to urban heat islands.
Delayed Rains and Drought: Below-Normal Precipitation Levels
The anticipated rainy season, set to begin around mid-December, is expected to yield precipitation below normal levels.
Estimates indicated that Mauritius may receive only about 80% of its typical rainfall, approximately 1,100 mm, while Rodrigues could see around 85% of its average, equating to about 600 mm.
This water deficit could present significant challenges for farmers already grappling with high temperatures and may have serious ramifications for water management and food supply.
Up to 13 Storms Expected
The cyclone season, which officially runs from November 1 to May 15, is predicted to be intense for the southwestern Indian Ocean basin.
The formation of 11 to 13 named storms is anticipated, with conditions particularly favourable for cyclone development in the central and western regions of the Indian Ocean and the Mozambique Channel.
While not all storms will make direct landfall on Mauritius and Rodrigues, their proximity could generate dangerous swells and storm surges, posing serious threats to coastal populations.
Meteorological services recommending residents stay informed and prepare their homes for potential storm surges, especially in the most vulnerable areas.
Risks of Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mini-Tornadoes from January to March 2025
The months of January through March 2025 are expected to be especially conducive to extreme weather events, including violent thunderstorms, heavy rains, and even mini-tornadoes.
These severe conditions may lead to flash floods, affecting both urban and rural areas and threatening infrastructure and transport networks.
As the summer of 2024-25 approaches, it is clear that this season will require heightened caution and preparation in anticipation of the imminent climatic challenges.
Source: Le Mauricien