Can Chagos Deals be a Winning Card?

In the lead-up to the 2024 legislative elections, the issue of the Chagos archipelago has emerged as a pivotal topic that could significantly influence the political landscape in Mauritius. Developments in this matter are likely to impact the ambitions of the ruling Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) and its leader, Pravind Jugnauth, as he eyes a potential third term in office.

Following a meeting on July 23 at No. 10 Downing Street between British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his Mauritian counterpart Pravind Jugnauth, the pursuit of Mauritius’s sovereignty over the Chagos archipelago has accelerated.

This rapid evolution is catching the attention of hardliners in both London and Washington.

Just last week, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), typically reticent about the bilateral consultations regarding the Chagos since November 3, 2022, issued a detailed update along with an official statement from Foreign Secretary David Lammy outlining the path forward.

After deliberations in a cabinet meeting chaired by Jugnauth, optimism was expressed regarding the progress of the negotiations, which are now at a crucial stage.

A notable point from the official cabinet communiqué emphasized that “to enhance these efforts, the UK Prime Minister has appointed Mr. Jonathan Powell as his political envoy to expedite the conclusion of the negotiations.”

Observers have noted that Jugnauth would not have made such a significant commitment lightly, especially regarding the phrase “expedite the conclusion of the negotiations,” carrying substantial weight as discussions about Chagos enter their third year.

Importantly, the commitment of the new Labour government in the UK to engage in negotiations with Mauritius, respecting international law related to sovereignty and territorial integrity, remained firm.

This intention was underscored by the appointment of Jonathan Powell, former Chief of Staff to ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair, brining considerable experience in high-stakes negotiations, including pivotal roles in the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement and as Prime Minister David Cameron’s Special Envoy to Libya.

The FCDO statement indicated that Powell’s mandate included immediate engagement with senior officials in Mauritius and the United States, highlighting the formal involvement of the U.S. government in these negotiations—a detail previously unacknowledged in public communications from either Port-Louis or London.

The Foreign Secretary reiterated that the UK is committed to ensuring the “long-term, secure and effective operation” of the UK-US military base located on Diego Garcia, framing the negotiations as integral to preserving the interests of both nations.

Lammy emphasized a desire to reach a “settlement that protects UK interests and those of our partners,” while also noting the significant military role the base plays in regional and global security.

Le Mauricien’s sources within Port-Louis have confirmed that the joint announcement regarding Powell’s appointment came after intense consultations involving key officials from both governments.

Despite a busy political calendar due to the upcoming general elections, Jugnauth was kept informed of these discussions.

Both parties reached a mutual understanding about the appointment as they concluded their talks.

The Mauritian government has expressed its willingness to resolve the longstanding territorial dispute dating back to the 1965 Lancaster House conference, marking nearly six decades since the Chagos archipelago was detached from Mauritian territory in exchange for independence.

The Port-Louis communiqué stated, “Cabinet has also taken note that an agreed resolution to this long-standing, complex and important issue is in the interest of both parties, and that the United Kingdom is working in close coordination with the United States.

Mauritius will endeavour expeditiously to conclude a negotiated agreement respecting international law and the sovereignty of Mauritius.”

In reaction to these developments, British news agency Reuters reported that “Jonathan Powell has been appointed as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s special envoy to lead negotiations between Britain and Mauritius, claiming that it was illegally stripped of the islands, over who has sovereignty of the territory.”

The upcoming 23rd round of negotiations, likely to take place in London later this month, promises to be decisive given the commitments made in the past week.

However, as of Friday, 13 September, no confirmation was available regarding the negotiations’ timeline.

From a political standpoint, reaching an agreement regarding Mauritius’s sovereignty over the Chagos could be pivotal for completing the country’s decolonization process and opening up discussions about resettling the Chagossian people in their homeland.

This is historically and emotionally significant for the Chagossian community, who remember the 1971 decree that violently removed them.

Meanwhile, the prospect of a deal over the Chagos issue is seen as a strategic political asset for Jugnauth as he prepared for the upcoming elections.

He is expected to leverage any agreement as part of his platform while marking a historical initiative begun by his predecessor, the late Sir Anerood Jugnauth, to unify Mauritius’s territorial integrity against opposition leaders.

Additionally, discussions have emerged regarding a potential lease agreement for the Diego Garcia military base, which may provide financial benefits to Mauritius.

During his tenure in opposition, MSM leader Xavier-Luc Duval estimated potential revenue from such a lease at Rs 120 billion, a figure he presented during a parliamentary inquiry.

While Jugnauth has opted to refrain from publicly engaging with these estimates, the notion remained a key consideration for financing various electoral promises.

However, the timeline for any lease, even if proposed by the government, remained uncertain and dependent on negotiations between London and Port-Louis, with the approval of the U.S. government.

Given that the U.S. is entering its presidential election season, with critical elections scheduled for November 5, control over the timeline for these discussions might lie outside Mauritius’s purview until the new U.S. administration takes office on January 20, 2025.

Source: Le Mauricien